A Russian military satellite that moved dangerously close to a western commercial spacecraft last month may have been testing capabilities for a potential attack, a military space expert has warned. Meanwhile, two other Russian satellites linked to the spacecraft are reportedly moving towards the orbital path of another western satellite, according to the Reuters.US under secretary of State Thomas DiNanno said in a post on X following the incident in mid-October that Russia’s cosmos 2612 military satellite had been “intentionally maneuvering dangerously close to a commercial satellite”. He described the activity as being “consistent with on-orbit weapons operations”.According to the news agency Reuters, the satellite targeted during the encounter, known as X36, is operated by Finnish company ICEYE. It supplies radar imagery to western governments and military organisations, including Ukraine.Three space experts described the encounter as one of the closest known approaches by a Russian military spacecraft to a commercial satellite operating in low Earth orbit.Greg Gillinger, a senior space analyst at US-based Integrity ISR, which provides training to American space forces, said the manoeuvre appeared to resemble preparations for an attack.“This is the most aggressive posture I’ve seen Russia take in terms of threatening satellites from another nation,” he told Reuters.Russia’s defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Moscow has repeatedly warned that commercial Western satellites providing assistance to Ukraine could be considered legitimate targets for retaliatory action.Ann Stevens, head of ICEYE’s US operations, told Reuters that X36 “has been and will continue to be a productive satellite”. She added that the company’s network of radar-imaging satellites was designed to remain resilient in the event of disruptions.
Growing concerns over weapons in space
The incident has intensified concerns about the security of commercial satellite networks, which have become increasingly important to military operations.It follows months of Russian activity around ICEYE satellites. Western officials have warned that such manoeuvres demonstrate capabilities that could potentially be used to threaten or disrupt commercial satellite networks, including those operated by Elon Musk’s SpaceX.Gillinger, a former US air force intelligence officer who has been monitoring Russian spacecraft, believes Cosmos 2612 may have been testing capabilities associated with kinetic attacks. He argued that such an extremely close approach would not have been necessary for routine intelligence gathering or electronic interference.According to US space intelligence company slingshot aerospace, Cosmos 2612 is publicly classified as a satellite designed for servicing and inspecting other spacecraft.It is among six military satellites Russia launched in April. Space analysts have said that four of these spacecraft moved close to ICEYE’s X36 satellite in May.ICEYE subsequently repositioned X36, prompting additional manoeuvres by Russian satellites, the company’s chief executive, Rafal Modrzewski, told Reuters in September.In early October, Cosmos 2612 positioned itself several hundred kilometres behind X36, according to space analysts. Over the following days, it rapidly reduced the distance, approaching within approximately one kilometre (half a mile) of the commercial spacecraft around the middle of the month. Some analysts estimated that the separation was only a few hundred metres or even less.Gillinger said Cosmos 2612 later moved approximately 400 kilometres (250 miles) away from X36.He added that two other Russian satellites belonging to the same group were now moving towards the orbital path of another ICEYE spacecraft, identified as X37.US-based space-tracking company COMSPOC also reported that the two Russian satellites were increasingly well positioned to approach X37. Public space-object catalogues identify both X36 and X37 as spacecraft registered in the United States.
Experts warn of potential disruption to satellites
Germany’s space commander, Major General Michael Traut, told Reuters that close encounters such as the one involving Cosmos 2612 could serve several purposes, including inspecting, observing or interfering with another spacecraft, depending on its technological capabilities.“We must therefore consider the entire spectrum of possible effects, ranging from temporarily disrupting a satellite’s operations to permanently disabling it,” he said.However, Traut cautioned that the ability to carry out such orbital manoeuvres did not automatically indicate that Russia was preparing for or rehearsing an attack.He added that publicly available orbital information alone was insufficient to establish the actual purpose behind the satellite’s movements.
Major powers prepare for possible space conflict
The latest developments come amid growing concerns that geopolitical tensions could increasingly extend beyond Earth.Major powers are preparing for the possibility of military confrontations in space. Washington recently acknowledged deploying weapons in orbit, while the head of US Space Command said earlier this year that Russia had placed a space weapon within striking distance of critical American national security satellites.Andrew Turner, a space consultant and retired senior British air force officer, said Russia’s manoeuvre near X36 had significantly increased the possibility of an attack, whether through deliberate action or an unintended interaction between spacecraft.The incident has highlighted the growing risks facing commercial satellites that support military operations and the challenges of protecting critical space infrastructure as countries expand their capabilities in orbit.
